Ayotte's Lead Over Warmington Widens to 10 Points as Approval Climbs

Governor Kelly Ayotte has opened her largest advantage yet over Democrat Cinde Warmington, according to the University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll released Thursday.

The survey of 1,878 likely voters, conducted August 20-24 by the UNH Survey Center, found Ayotte leading Warmington 49% to 39%, with 3% backing another candidate and 9% undecided. Ayotte's job approval also rose to 49% approve versus 42% disapprove, a net rating of +7, up from even at +0 in July.

The numbers:

• April 2026: Ayotte 47%, Warmington 39% (+8)
• June 2026: Ayotte 44%, Warmington 39% (+5)
• August 2026: Ayotte 49%, Warmington 39% (+10)

Ayotte's gains came almost entirely from consolidating her own coalition, as Warmington has held steady at 39% since April. Ninety-five percent of Republicans and a plurality of independents (44%) back Ayotte, while independent approval of her job performance climbed to its highest point since October 2025.

Warmington, a former Executive Councilor and the presumptive Democratic nominee, remains a relative unknown statewide. Nearly half of respondents still can't form an opinion of her.

The poll also found housing (26%) and taxes (18%) topping the list of voters' concerns, with the share naming taxes as the state's most pressing problem hitting its highest mark since the Granite State Poll began tracking the question in 2001. Among voters who approve of Ayotte's performance, her handling of taxes and education led the list of reasons why.

With the general election still more than a year out, the question now is whether Warmington's campaign can close a gap that has moved in only one direction since spring.