Blakeman Bets on Staten Island in New York's Early Voting Surge

Republican Gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman told his Staten Island supporters over the weekend that strong turnout in the borough would deliver “a sweet victory” on Nov. 3, as early voting across New York opened at a pace far ahead of 2022, and both he and Gov. Kathy Hochul pushed to bank their voters before Election Day.

More than 485,000 New Yorkers voted in the first two days of early voting, up from about 262,000 over the same stretch four years ago, an increase of roughly 85%, Spectrum News reported. The state’s early-vote totals do not show party share, and analysts cautioned against reading them as a forecast.

“Here on Staten Island, if we get those record numbers here, we are going to have a sweet victory,” Blakeman said.

The Nassau County executive’s strategy rests on maximizing turnout in the Republican-friendly corners of the city and in the suburbs. Hochul is casting a wider net. “I focus on the entire state, and it takes a lot of time and energy but that’s what my job is,” she said over the weekend.

The 2022 race explains why both campaigns are watching the five boroughs. Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin that year in a closer-than-expected contest that coincided with Republican wins in several competitive New York House districts, gains that helped the GOP take control of the U.S. House.

“One of the things that we saw in 2022 that helped to make the governor’s race much closer than people had anticipated was that you had really low turnout in New York City,” said Shawn Donahue, a clinical assistant professor of political science at the University at Buffalo.

City turnout is up substantially this year, though by a smaller percentage than in some upstate counties. Donahue said the early numbers suggest “more enthusiasm in the Democratic Party for Governor Hochul,” with some of those voters “coming out to vote in bigger numbers than they were four years ago.”

Staten Island remains the Republicans’ anchor in the city. Through three days of early voting, the borough had recorded 18,863 votes, compared with 64,556 in Brooklyn and 63,195 in Manhattan, according to unofficial Board of Elections figures. Citywide, 224,894 early votes had been cast.

The surge is also showing up in counties with competitive House races, including Fulton and Essex in the 21st District, where Republican Anthony Constantino faces Democrat Blake Gendebien, and Rockland and Westchester in the 17th District, where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is defending his seat against Democrat Cait Conley.

Hochul has led in public polling, with a Quinnipiac University survey earlier this month putting her ahead by 14 points. Blakeman has dismissed the polls as “phony,” and Republicans are counting on another polling miss like the one that made the 2022 New York Governor's race closer than expected.

Early voting runs through Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 3.