New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate race is rapidly turning into one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterms, and Republicans have new reason to believe the Granite State could be in play.
The latest ratings from two major nonpartisan election handicappers now classify the race as a toss-up, putting Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas on essentially even footing in the battle to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Cook Political Report’s Senate ratings moved New Hampshire from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on September 15, citing movement toward Republicans. Inside Elections’ New Hampshire race page had already moved the contest to Toss-up on September 3, after previously rating it Tilt Democrat.
That shift is significant because New Hampshire has been a difficult state for Republicans in federal elections. But the open seat, combined with Sununu’s political pedigree, has given the GOP an opportunity that looked considerably less realistic earlier in the cycle.
Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, won the Republican nomination on September 8. Pappas, a four-term congressman, won the Democratic nomination the same day.
And recent polling has helped fuel the Republican optimism.
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43% among likely voters.
The political environment also presents a complicated picture for both parties. Democrats are attempting to hold the open New Hampshire seat while simultaneously targeting Republican-held seats elsewhere as they seek to regain control of the Senate. Republicans, meanwhile, see New Hampshire as an opportunity to expand their advantage in a chamber where they currently hold a 53-seat majority.
Cook’s latest move underscores just how quickly the race has changed.
The organization noted that Republicans are benefiting from Sununu’s family name, Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s presence at the top of the state ticket and planned Republican spending in the race.
For Democrats, what once looked like a relatively straightforward defense has become a genuine fight.
With both major nonpartisan handicappers now calling the contest a toss-up, New Hampshire has officially joined the list of Senate battlegrounds that could help determine which party controls Washington after November.
