Josh Shapiro has a lot riding on the upcoming midterm election. Pennsylvania’s famously ambitious governor wants, in the worst way, to change his address from 2035 North Front Street to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. But divided state government has crippled his ability to notch the policy achievements he needs to propel himself to the fore of far-left Democrats jockeying to succeed President Trump (AOC, Newsom, et al).
Two out of three might have been good enough for Meat Loaf, but in Harrisburg the Republican-led Senate has been Shapiro’s Achilles heel, stymying him and Democrat Speaker Joanna McClinton at every turn.
That’s why November 3 is make-or-break for Shapiro’s Oval Office aspiration.
Not only must he defeat uber-competent State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who in 2024 shattered Shapiro’s record for most votes in a statewide election, the Democrats must also complete the coveted Capitol trifecta by maintaining control of the state House while wresting the upper chamber from Republicans.
Anything short of the trifecta ensures Shapiro – assuming, momentarily, he beats Garrity – continues to whiff on the legislative goals that would maintain the arc of his political trajectory: $15/hr. minimum wage, recreational pot, gun control, and alternative energy mandates.
The trifecta is no mean feat, especially for Democrats, who haven’t held all the levers of power in Harrisburg since Ace of Base was atop the pop music charts with “Sign” (March 1994). But speaking of signs, a powerful omen bodes well for Shapiro: the dreaded six-year itch.
Adapted from the realm of marital relations by political theorist Kevin Phillips in the 1970s, six-year itch refers to the tendency of a president’s party to get shellacked in the election coinciding with the sixth year of his tenure. The textbook case was suffered by FDR in the 1938 midterm, when the Democratic Party hemorrhaged 72 House seats and 6 Senate seats.
In fact, only two presidents have exhibited any immunity to the six-year itch: Thomas Jefferson and William Jefferson Clinton.
Experts don’t see Trump’s second midterm election going better for the GOP than his first in 2018, when Republicans lost 41 U.S. House seats and, most pertinently for Shapiro, 7 governorships.
There’s ample reason to believe it will be worse. Consider that Trump’s job approval rating is ranging from 34-39 percent, compared to his 40-43 range at this exact point in 2018. In mid-June, Franklin and Marshall measured Trump’s favorability in the commonwealth at an abysmal 29 percent.
Why?
To crib Carville—it’s the economy, stupid. In July, America lost 23,000 jobs despite the Bureau of Labor Statistics having predicted an 83,000 gain.
According to a fresh poll by CNN’s Harry Enten, with aggregated data from Reuters/Ipsos, Trump has suffered a 31-point decline on his handling of the economy, from plus-9 at the start of his second term to an astonishing negative-22 today.
For perspective, in August of 2018 (three months before Republicans lost 7 governorships), Trump was plus-10 on the economy. The Iran War is also a drag on the Republican ticket, with two-thirds of Americans (including 37% of Republicans) saying it isn’t worth it.
Shapiro is a masterful political strategist and tactician who is keenly aware that 2026 is a referendum on the as-of-now deeply unpopular president. He spares no opportunity to hurl finely tuned invective at Trump. Every Shapiro stemwinder contains this polished line, in perfect pitch: “Donald Trump’s failed economic policies have raised prices, sowed chaos and uncertainty, and left us all worse off.”
Garrity meanwhile, has doubled down on her affection for the commander-in-chief. Unfortunately for her, Trump’s hardcore supporters are notoriously insular – they are prone to vote only when he’s on the ballot. The president’s haters – and they are legion – show up in non-presidential elections to make sure he knows they hate him.
A concern for Garrity is a recent survey by Clarity CL which found that only 36% of Trump supporters identify as supporters of the Republican Party.
As if Garrity’s effort to defy the six-year itch wasn’t herculean enough, she also faces a horrid fundraising disadvantage. To beat the odds, she’ll need to convince Keystone State voters that Shapiro – not Trump – is the cause of their malaise. But that will require a war chest in the neighborhood of $50 million. As of her last campaign finance filing in early June, Garrity had a scant $1.1 million on hand. Shapiro was flush with $38.3 million.
And yet, Shapiro can’t uncork the Dom Perignon just yet. PennLive.com a week ago reported a horse race poll showing Garrity has narrowed the gap from 25 points to 13 (50-37). Concomitantly, Republicans have slimmed Democrats’ longstanding lead in active party members (those who vote) in the commonwealth to just 25,000, the smallest deficit for the GOP in the modern era.
Also in Garrity’s favor isher indefatigable retail politicking. To meet her is to like her, and no one will interact with more Pennsylvania voters than her. For his part, Shapiro is running as if their circumstances were reversed. He’ll not be outfoxed or caught flat-footed.
An unlikely valence issue has arisen for Garrity to potentially drive a wedge between the incumbent and Pennsylvania’spivotal bloc of independent voters: data centers. She has begun running a spot on Facebook and television in the State College media market slamming Shapiro for making Pennsylvania the Wild West of data center development.
Her ad accuses him of accepting an eye-popping $5 million from out-of-state date center developers while greasing the skids for them to bypass local opposition. His campaign quickly parried by posting to social media an audio clip of her on the hustings lamenting that Pennsylvania has fallen behind Ohio on data center construction.
Bottom line: Since 1926 in Pennsylvania, all Republicans who’ve run for governor in the sixth year of a Republican president’s incumbency have been defeated. Republicans’ two worst gubernatorial defeats in that period were during midterms: Lynn Swann garnered 39.6% in George W. Bush’s six-year itch of 2006, and Scott Wagner garnered 40.7% in Trump’s first mid-term of 2018.
For Garrity to defy such a formidable historical phenomenon, she needs the Iran War to end, inflation and gas to come down, and extraordinary financial help from well-heeled individuals and political action committees. Less likelier constellations have formed in the political universe. Additionally, Garrity would be wise to distance herself from Trump.
Lest anyone think Shapiro is a shoo-in and can begin his White House run in earnest, here’s one last piece of interesting history.
In 2014, Republican Governor Tom Corbett lost re-election by double-digits to Democrat Tom Wolf, a stunning outcome that both defied the six-year itch (it was Obama’s second mid-term) and snapped Pennsylvania’s string of six consecutive two-term governors. The first rule of politics: never say never.
