DCCC Touts Internal Poll Showing Dead Heat in ME-02

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is claiming a new poll shows Democrat Matt Dunlap in a "dead heat" with Republican Paul LePage in Maine's open 2nd Congressional District, a race both parties consider one of the country's top pickup opportunities this fall.

The DCCC's press release claims President Trump is 13 points underwater in the district and that LePage's favorability has dropped five points in the last two months. DCCC spokesperson Riya Vashi framed the numbers as proof Mainers are rejecting LePage in favor of Dunlap, the state auditor and former secretary of state.

The catch: the poll is a Democratic Party committee's own internal survey of a race it is actively working to win, not an independent, nonpartisan poll. National party committees routinely release favorable internal numbers to shape media narratives and juice fundraising, and ME-02 is no exception.

The underlying dynamics are real regardless. Trump carried the district three times, most recently by nine points over Kamala Harris in 2024, and Republicans view it as a marquee pickup target now that Rep. Jared Golden, the Democrat who held the seat, chose not to seek re-election. LePage, the former two-term governor, has run statewide before and narrowly carried the district even while losing his 2022 gubernatorial bid to Janet Mills.

Dunlap, for his part, won a tight four-way primary after defeating the DCCC's own preferred candidate, and the committee was notably slow to fully back him afterward.

Neither campaign has released independently verified public polling. Voters should treat committee-sponsored numbers, from either party, as advocacy rather than objective measurement heading into a race expected to remain close through November.