Gov. Kathy Hochul still leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman heading into November, but her advantage has been steadily eroding for months, according to the latest Siena poll of likely New York voters.
The survey shows Hochul at 50 percent to Blakeman's 41 percent, a nine-point race that continues a clear downward trend for the incumbent Democrat. In June, Hochul led by 20 points among registered voters. By August, that lead had shrunk to 10 points. Now, just weeks before Election Day, it has narrowed further still.
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, has consistently outperformed Hochul on character measures throughout the campaign, with likely voters rating him more favorably than the governor on being tough, honest and in touch with average New Yorkers, according to prior Siena surveys.
One of the biggest questions is whether Blakeman can continue making gains outside his strongest suburban base. Hochul's advantage remains substantial in New York City, giving the incumbent a critical cushion, but Blakeman's strength in the suburbs could make the statewide margin considerably tighter than it appeared earlier this year. With the cost of living dominating voter concerns, both campaigns have a narrow window to define the race before voters make their final decisions.
Affordability remains the defining issue of the race, with voters repeatedly naming it their top concern heading into Albany's next legislative session. Hochul has leaned on housing and cost-of-living proposals to shore up support, while Blakeman has sought to cast her as out of touch with the economic pressures facing ordinary New Yorkers.
Whether the erosion in Hochul's numbers continues through Election Day, or stabilizes as undecided voters make up their minds, will determine just how competitive New York's governor's race ultimately becomes.
