As previously reported by NEI, the Democrats haven’t had majority control of both the Pennsylvania House and Senate since the spring of 1994. But now they believe the stars have aligned to end their drought.
President Trump’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is an abysmal 29%. In just the last year, Pennsylvania has slid nine spots to 47th worst in the nation in economic strength.
Popular Democrat Governor Josh Shapiro tops the ballot and is a fundraising machine, with $38 million on hand as of the close of the June reporting period. The poll rosiest for Republicans shows Shapiro leading Stacy Garrity by 13 points.
If Garrity doesn’t seriously narrow her fundraising disadvantage (she had only $1 million on hand as of June) and polling deficit by October, Shapiro will be able to spread his wealth down ballot and expand Democrats’ legislative targets. Thanks to legislative districts being blatantly gerrymandered to favor incumbents, only a handful of legislative seats are presently competitive. As of now, control of the PA Senate and House comes down to only five and nine seats, respectively.
Currently, Republicans hold a 27-23 majority in the State Senate. Due to staggered terms, 25 seats are on the ballot this year. The upper chamber has been, by far, the hardest nut to crack for Democrats. Consider 2006, which is the last time Democrats had the benefit of the six-year itch (the historical tendency of the electorate to punish the party of a president in his sixth year of incumbency).
That year, George W. Bush had sub-40 approval ratings heading into the midterm. Democrats had a popular incumbent governor from the southeast, Ed Rendell, topping the ballot with a heavy fundraising advantage.
Sound familiar? Rendell handed Republican Lynn Swann the worst defeat the GOP has ever experienced in a gubernatorial election, while Democrats ousted the GOP from the state House majority by picking up eight seats. And yet, Democrats put up a goose egg in state Senate races, as the GOP ran the table in every competitive contest.
Nonetheless, Democrats are waxing optimistic as they target four freshman GOP senators across SEPA, NEPA, and the Lehigh Valley, while the GOP targets a freshman Democrat in Lancaster County to cement its majority.
District 24 – Berks and Montgomery counties
Senator Tracy Pennycuick (pronounced Penny Cook) faces a sturdy challenge from Democrat outsider Christopher Thomas, a former middle school teacher and self-styled community organizer from blue-collar stock.
*Dist 24 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 4
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 5
District 6 – Bucks County
The Democrats believe Bucks County Clerk of Courts Eileen Hartnett Albillar offers one of their best shots for a pickup. Hartnett Albillar is a former social worker and advocate for homeless youth. She seeks to unseat Sen. Frank Farry, whom she accuses of being complicit in the increased cost of living and funding shortage at SEPTA (the public transit agency for southeastern PA). State Navigate polling has Hartnett Albillar leading 46-45.
*Dist 6 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 8
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 0.06
District 16 – Bucks and Lehigh counties
Senator Jarrett Coleman faces a rematch with Democrat challenger Mark Pinsley. Dems are bullish on the race because Coleman is an outspoken conservative reformer whose ideology, they believe, is mismatched for the district.
*Dist 16 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 8.3
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 3
District 36 – Lancaster County
Freshman James Malone rocked the Capitol in 2025 when he won the special election to fill this then-vacant seat in the heart of conservative Lancaster County. Malone was the beneficiary of Republican infighting, Trump fatigue, and a subpar GOP opponent. This time around, Malone faces state Representative Tom Jones, a top-flight campaigner with the unified backing of Republican brass. The GOP is widely expected to reclaim this seat, which would make the Democrats’ effort to win the upper chamber that much more difficult.
*Dist 36 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP faced no opposition
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 33
District 40 – Lackawanna, Monroe and Wayne counties
Senator Rosemary Brown is squaring off against Democrat Brian Wrightstone, the owner/operator of Fire Tower Communications and a former call center director for Lackawanna County. Brown is no stranger to tough elections, having prevailed in bruising contests for the state House. She is expected to win, but if she has a nailbiter on election night it will auger a brutal cycle for the GOP.
*Dist 40 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 7.5
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 13.6
State House
Democrats have the narrowest of majorities in the lower chamber, 102-101. With 203 House seats on the ballot this fall, several bruising battles in the Philly suburbs will ultimately decide which party wields the gavel in January.
District 142 – Bucks County
Representative Joe Hogan and Democrat challenger Kristin Egan both graduated from Conwell-Egan Catholic High School yet, curiously, both oppose school choice. Egan taught in public school for two decades and is on the executive board of the Bensalem Township teachers union. The road to the House majority runs through this district, and it should be a barnburner. State and Navigate polling has Egan ahead 48-44.
*Dist 142 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 0.24
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 12
District 144 – Bucks County
Representative Brian Munroe is expected to fend off GOP challenger Mike Murphy, which would give the Democrats a key hold. State Navigate has it 52-40 in favor of the incumbent.
*Dist 144 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: DEM + 1.6
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 1.9
District 178 – Bucks County
State Representative Kristin Marcell’s district has seen wild swings. In 2024, she won by 22% as Trump’s loyal legion of voters flooded the polls. But in Trump’s first midterm, the GOP eked it out by less than 2%. State Navigate has Marcell comfortably ahead of Democrat challenger Monica Weninger, 51-39.
*Dist 178 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 7.1
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 1.6
District 18 – Bucks County
In yet another Bucks County contest, State Representative Kathleen “KC” Tomlinson is battling Democrat Bryan Allen, who for many years was the chief of staff for Democrat State Representative Tina Davis. State Navigate shows Tomlinson in trouble, down 48-44.
*Dist 18 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 4.5
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 13
District 160 – Delaware and Chester counties
Representative Craig Williams faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Elizabeth Moro, an author and the founder of Centreville Place Café + Market.
*Dist 160 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 4.7
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 2.7
District 137 – Northampton County
Representative Joe Emrick faces Democrat Jeff Warren, the director of community outreach for CASA SHaW, a nonprofit that supports children in foster care. Emrick is as battle-tested as they come, having previously foughtoff tough challengers the House Democrat Campaign Committee were sure would win.
*Dist 137 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 1.3
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 11.6
District 44 – Allegheny County
Representative Valerie Gaydoes faces gun control activist Hadley Haas. The scrappy Gaydos should prevail, so if she finds herself in close contest on election night, the House Democrat Campaign Committee is likely having a great cycle.
*Dist 44 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 9.8
2018 Trump Midterm: GOP + 3.5
District 72 – Cambria County
Republicans have thrown the kitchen sink at State Representative Frank Burns since the General Assembly’s lone blue dog Democrat first won this seat in ruby red Cambria County in 2008. For the GOP to have any shot of re-taking the House, they must finally beat Burns, and they believe Phil Rice will get it done. Rice is a highly decorated combat veteran who retired with the rank of lieutenant colonel from the U.S. Army.
*Dist 72 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: DEM + 9
2018 Trump Midterm: DEM + 5
District 9 – Lawrence County
Democrats expect the national mood and six-year itch will carry Shay Micco to victory over Representative Marla Gallo Brown, considering they previously won the seat during Trump’s first midterm by 14 points. Micco has a compelling background; she graduated high school and went on to Lenape Practical Nursing Schooldespite becoming a mother at 15.
*Dist 9 Electoral History:
2022 Biden Midterm: GOP + 6
2018 Trump Midterm: DEM + 14
Current Forecast: Republicans look likely to hold the Senate, at worst losing one seat. Democrats are in prime position to increase their House majority by 3-5 seats.
* Results for each district from the two most recent mid-terms are the best indicator of partisan expectation for the 2026 midterm, yet readers should know that the demographics in each district changed to varying degrees between the 2018 Trump midterm and the 2022 Biden midterm, due to redistricting that happened after the 2020 Census.
