Hochul’s Lead Collapses as Blakeman Makes New York Governor’s Race Competitive

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul still leads Republican Bruce Blakeman, but a new Siena poll shows the Republican closing the gap and exposing vulnerabilities for the Democratic incumbent.

Hochul leads Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters, according to Siena’s first likely-voter poll of the 2026 election cycle. Her lead has been cut to 10 points from a 20-point advantage in Siena’s June poll of registered voters.

The numbers get more interesting outside deep-blue New York City.

Hochul holds a 64%-19% lead in New York City, but Blakeman leads 49%-41% in the downstate suburbs and the two are virtually tied upstate. Independent voters also favor Blakeman 45%-40%.

The poll also shows Blakeman performing better than Hochul on several key personal characteristics. Voters are more likely to describe him as tough and someone who gets things done, while Hochul is underwater on whether she is in touch with average New Yorkers.

Hochul's job approval is also underwater, at 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable among likely voters.

The Republican faces a difficult climb in a state where Democrats still lead the generic congressional ballot 54%-38%. But the poll suggests New York's suburbs and independents could give Blakeman an opening.

The poll surveyed 811 likely voters from Aug. 3-6 and has a margin of error of ±4.6 points.

For Hochul, the warning sign is simple: she's ahead, but it's a competitive race, and her Republican challenger is gaining ground where statewide elections are won.