Sen. Susan Collins has pulled back into the lead in Maine's marquee Senate contest, according to a new survey that breaks with weeks of polling showing her Democratic challenger ahead.
The Times/Siena poll marks the first independent survey since Democrat Troy Jackson entered the race in July to show the five-term Republican back on top, giving national Republicans a genuine reason for optimism in a race they had feared was slipping away.
Collins has trailed Jackson in at least four consecutive polls since the summer, including surveys from CNN, the University of New Hampshire and Democrat-aligned Hart Research, all showing the Democrat ahead by three to four points. The new numbers echo 2020, when Collins trailed Sara Gideon in nearly every public poll before winning the general election outright.
Collins won her 2020 re-election with 51 percent of the vote despite trailing in September polling. Maine backed Kamala Harris by roughly seven points in 2024.
Republicans have long argued that Maine's electorate is difficult to poll accurately, pointing to Collins' history of outperforming her numbers on Election Day thanks to crossover support and a moderate, split-ticket-friendly brand, a pattern the new poll suggests may be reasserting itself once again this cycle.
With just weeks remaining before Election Day, the shift gives Collins fresh momentum to close out the race on her own terms, even as Democrats continue banking on a hostile national environment to carry Jackson across the finish line in November.
