Four New York Swing Seats Could Decide the House as Lawler-Conley Ad Spending Tops $50 Million

New York’s four competitive House races could again help decide which party controls Congress, with ad spending in Republican Rep. Mike Lawler’s Hudson Valley rematch topping $50 million and a Trump-tied super PAC putting about $10 million behind Republican Mike LiPetri’s bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi on Long Island.

Republicans hold a 218-214 majority with one independent and two vacancies. Four years ago, New York’s swing districts helped hand the GOP the House when Republicans picked up two Long Island seats and two in the Hudson Valley, aided by Lee Zeldin running stronger than Gov. Kathy Hochul at the top of the ticket. Democrats won back three of those four seats in 2024. Lawler was the only Republican to hold on.

“Of course New York is important. The New York races were important in the Republicans taking the House in 2022,” state Republican Chairman Ed Cox said.

State Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs predicted every Democratic incumbent will win and the party could gain two more seats in the Hudson Valley and upstate. “Hakeem Jeffries will be the next speaker of the House,” he said.

17th District: Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran and former national security adviser in the Biden administration. AdImpact found more than $50 million in combined ad spending, $30 million from Republican groups and $20.9 million from Democrats, the second-highest total of any House race in the country behind North Carolina’s 1st District.

3rd District: Suozzi, a former Nassau County executive, faces LiPetri, a former Assembly member who lost to him by 3 points in 2024. Beyond the super PAC money, LiPetri has won the endorsement of Suozzi’s hometown police department, which backed Suozzi two years ago.

4th District: Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen faces Republican Jeanine Driscoll, Hempstead’s receiver of taxes, on Nassau’s South Shore. Gillen has drawn criticism for taking credit for funding for programs she voted against and has been labeled a “serial tax hiker” by critics.

21st District: The race to succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik has turned competitive in a district Republicans long held. Businessman Anthony Constantino has put $17 million of his own money into the race against Democrat Blake Gendebien, a farmer. House Majority PAC has spent $1.4 million, including on an ad attacking Constantino for supporting Trump’s trade war with Canada. A Times Union/Siena poll released Oct. 9 had Gendebien up 46% to 42%.

Constantino won the GOP primary after Trump endorsed him, and the Conservative Party line was left blank. Campaign strategist O’Brien “OB” Murray said the split on the right gives Democrats an opening. “It’s a fractured Republican Party,” he said. “When the Republican and Conservative parties are not in sync, it’s a problem.”

Vice President JD Vance rallied with Constantino in Rome on Monday. Murray called Vance the “perfect surrogate” to tell Republicans that keeping the seat is “too important” to cede to Democrats over party infighting.

Election Day is Nov. 3.